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Title :Fleet demolition in the era of Covid-19: a vessel-based logit regression model
Alternative Title :Παράγοντες που επηρεάζουν την ανακύκλωση πλοίων στην εποχή του Covid-19
Creator :Boukara, Dimitra
Roulia, Elena-Michailina
Μπουκάρα, Δήμητρα
Ρούλια, Έλενα-Μιχαηλίνα
Contributor :Tsouknidis, Dimitris A. (Επιβλέπων καθηγητής)
Kavousanos, Emmanuel G. (Εξεταστής)
Moutos, Thomas (Εξεταστής)
Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Accounting and Finance (Degree granting institution)
Type :Text
Extent :42p.
Language :en
Identifier :
Abstract :The paper investigates and proposes key demolition drivers and the extent of their influence to shipowners’ scraping decisions. This vessel-based approach analysis is achieved via a two-way clustered adjusted standard error logit model. The usage of an extensive dataset based on the monthly demolition of vessels between the years 2018 and 2021 along with ship specific, segment, industry and macroeconomic variables, enhance the findings while providing a holistic framework. The vessels that are examined in this paper are all the Bulker Handymaxs, Bulker Panamaxes, Tanker Handymaxes, Tanker Panamaxes, Aframaxes, Capesizes, Suezmaxs and VLCCs that were sold for scrapping between the aforementioned timeframe. A focused time fixed effect dummy variable is also, applied to measure the impact of COVID-19 and aid in understanding the disruption that occurred in the demolition market during this period. The variables that included in the dataset in this paper can be categorized in three key groups: The vessel specific variables, the industry-oriented variables and the macroeconomic variables. In order to obtain the model that best describes the shipowners’ decisions for scrapping a number of different models were examined for their significance via an empirical study.The study firstly, examined models that contained only vessel specific variables, then proceeded with models that consisted of industry specific variables and then models with macroeconomic variables. Even if some of the variables were found statistically significant, none of the models described best scrapping decisioning. In the end, the model that predicted better vessels’ demolition was found to be a model combining variables from all three variable categories. The final model, or best the main determinants in the demolition market are found in this paper to be: the age of a vessel, the market scrap value, the Trade Steel Production Index and the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. The age and the Scrap Value are found to have a positive relationship with vessels demolition, whereas a negative relationship was found between scrapping decisioning and Trade Steel Production Index and Global EPU. Finally, time fixed effect dummy variable that was created to measure the impact of Covid-19 was found insignificant, demonstrating that the Covid-19 outburst does not considerably affects the vessels demolition.
Η παρούσα έρευνα, διερευνά τους βασικούς παράγοντες που επηρεάζουν την απόφαση ενός πλοιοκτήτη να προχωρήσει με την ανακύκλωση ενός πλοίου του στόλου του.
Subject :Shipping
Vessels demolition
Logit regression model
Ανακύκλωση πλοίου
Στατιστική έρευνα
Date Available :2021-12-17 14:04:29
Date Issued :2021
Date Submitted :2021-12-17 14:04:29
Access Rights :Free access
Licence :

File: Boukara_Roulia_2021.pdf

Type: application/pdf