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Bureaucracy & corruption: The effect of e-governance
(11-12-1027) Palamioti, Katerina; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International and European Economic Studies; Konstantinou, Panagiotis
A lot of evidence point out that the bureaucratic system is inefficient and it has a problematic and time-consuming structure which, among others, also facilitates corruptive actions to take place. The introduction of e-governance was an action taken to lead to less bureaucracy and by deduction, to less corruption. Under this hypothesis, this paper studies the effect of automatisation of the public sector in a country (e-governance) on the bureaucratic rigidness, transparency and corruption. For that, this analysis is based on a completely new dataset, compiled by the author describing the degree of e-governance and corruption for a sample of 128 industrial and developing countries from 1996 to 2014. In brief from the most significant results we learn that: the more qualitative and effective a bureaucracy and governance is, the general quality of the e-Governance also significantly increases; is more likely a stable government in a conflict free region and probably having a democratic regime to fit the e-Governance requirements and apply its reforms; the GDP of a country will slightly drop the moment it applies the e-Governance reforms; and the citizens will slightly feel an additional control and exposure with their private data online, so they will be in cases a bit reluctant to use the e-governance online services, with no lasting effect though over time. Finally, all e-Governance indicators, except the one of eGovIndex, when regressed with corruption, were statistically signifiant and significant effects of the voice and accountability and of the political parties classification on the control of corruption, were also observed. The results are robust to the inclusion of a satisfying variety of controls.
The correlation between corruption and fiscal policy
(15-09-2023) Θεοδωρόπουλος, Σπυρίδων; Theodoropoulos, Spyridon; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International European Economic Studies; Blavoukos, Spyros; Kammas, Pantelis; Konstantinou, Panagiotis
Η διαφθορά είναι δύσκολο να ποσοτικοποιηθεί είτε μέσω απτής εμπειρίας είτε μέσω μαθηματικών δεδομένων. Αρκετοί ανεξάρτητοι οργανισμοί ανά τον κόσμο έχουν αναπτύξει δείκτες μέσω των οποίων προσπαθούν να μετρήσουν το επίπεδο της διαφθοράς, μέσα από διάφορες πτυχές της καθημερινής λειτουργίας μιας κοινωνίας ή μιας οικονομίας και από διάφορες δράσεις που έχουν συγκροτηθεί για να εφαρμοστούν υπό την ομπρέλα της, όπως η δωροδοκία. Εκτός από τις εγγενείς δυσκολίες μέτρησης της διαφθοράς, πρέπει επίσης να λάβουμε υπόψη την εγκυρότητα των συλλεγόμενων δεδομένων, καθώς πολλές χώρες που θα μπορούσαν να θεωρηθούν διεφθαρμένες, σε κάποιο επίπεδο, μπορεί επίσης να βρεθεί ότι δεν είναι επαρκώς αξιόπιστες όταν πρόκειται για παροχή χρήσιμων δεδομένων.Με αυτό το σκεπτικό, σε αυτή τη διατριβή θα προσπαθήσουμε να χρησιμοποιήσουμε τέτοια δεδομένα για να παρουσιάσουμε αρχικά ένα στιγμιότυπο των επιλεγμένων χωρών και της σχέσης τους με τη διαφθορά, χωρίς να προσπαθήσουμε να παρουσιάσουμε μια απολύτως ακριβή ιστορική εικόνα της ιστορίας τους. Αλλά, αφού παρουσιάσουμε την ιστορία τους με όρους διαφθοράς, θα αναλύσουμε τη δημοσιονομική τους πολιτική, ειδικά σε περιόδους κρίσης, με τελικό στόχο να δούμε αν υπάρχει κάποια σχέση μεταξύ της διαφθοράς και της δημοσιονομικής πολιτικής που υιοθετεί μια χώρα, καθώς και ποιος μπορεί να είναι ο λόγος ύπαρξης ή απουσίας της.
Current account adjustment and exchange rate regimes
(01/25/2018) Beteniotis, Filippas P.; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International and European Economic Studies; Economides, George; Katsimi, Margarita; Konstantinou, Panagiotis
There is a general belief by the majority of policymakers and academicians that the current account convergence is more rapid under more flexible exchange rate regimes, which is in line with what Friedman supported on his essay (1953). Recently, a small number of studies has attempted to evaluate whether Friedman’s hypothesis is confirmed by the data. The aim of this dissertation is to examine whether exchange rate regimes affect the current account adjustment. The results are in favor with the common belief. Using a panel of different groups of countries, in a general first order auto regressive model (AR(1)), over the 1970-2016 period, we can observe that for the group of 189 countries (Full Sample), the OECD country members, the Lower Middle income countries and the High Income countries there is tendency for the current account to adjust faster under more flexible regimes, which is in line with Friedman’s hypothesis. However, considering the Low income countries the current account adjustment is more rapid under more fixed regimes.
The effects of Fiscal Policy on Current Accounts
Kannavos, Sotirios; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International and European Economic Studies; Konstantinou, Panagiotis
The variables that we use to explain how current account is affected by fiscal policy are listed below. All the variables that we used are seen through literature as important determinants of current account and are used in most of academic papers that tried to explain the movement of current account. In the present study those variables are used as controls in order to help us understand better the separate effect of fiscal policy on current account. It is important to notice that in literature the effect every variable has on current account is divided in effects that come from behavior of the global markets, governments etc. and in effects that stem from the behavior of individuals. In some cases those effects coincide, but also they may differ. Fiscal Balance Fiscal Balance, as mentioned above, is likely to have a positive impact on the current account balance. That means, according to the twin deficit hypothesis, that a fiscal surplus is going to improve the current account balance and a fiscal deficit will make the current account balance deteriorate . A simple version of the hypothesis notes that the current account balance is equal to saving minus investment, so any expansion of the fiscal deficit, that lowers public saving must lower the current account balance. The more sophisticated version of the hypothesis takes into account the endogeneity of private saving and investment decisions. A fiscal expansion boosts domestic spending, pushing up domestic interest rates relative to foreign rates, this attracts foreign investors and makes the local currency stronger, something that leads to widening the current account deficit. Gruber, Kamin (2006). However, some papers Bussière (2005) show that the twin-deficit hypothesis does not necessarily hold when consumers act in a “Ricardian” manner. If the fiscal situation is perceived by agents as increasingly unsustainable, then tax increases or reduction in government spending (i.e. fiscal consolidation) are expected in the future. which will affect agents’ future net wealth. In this case, a higher fiscal deficit (or lower fiscal surplus) in the present decreases consumption and increases precautionary saving, so that agents maintain their long-run rate of consumption, in an environment of reduced future disposable income. This would lead to a lower current account deficit (or higher current account surplus). Thus, to the extent that private agents do not adjust their saving more than the change in the fiscal balance, we expect the current account to respond positively to the fiscal balance otherwise it is going to respond negatively. Risk Premium -Interest rate (Government Bonds) The typical prediction is for the interest rate and current account to be negatively correlated. That happens because fiscal tightening is likely to make interest rates fall. Smaller interest rates will increase the capital inflows from external borrowing and thus the current account deficit will be widened, Spiro (1997). On the other hand, we have to take into account the effects of possible financial shocks. Those shocks may be noticed by an increase in the risk premium charged on external liabilities. Blanchard et al (2010), develop a model of a small, emerging economy in which these different types of shocks can be analyzed. They show that an increase in the risk premium are associated with a narrowing of the external balance. Similarly, in the IMF’s Global Economic Model, which is a general-equilibrium macroeconomic model of the world economy,an increase in the risk premium on external debt can be shown to deliver a reduction in external imbalances and a decline in output in debtor countries Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2007). Also some authors suggest that there is a positive correlation between interest rates and the current account balance. The intuition behind that claim is the following. We have to take into account the expectations about growth and default rates in the countries. Countries that are expected to keep their growth level or are perceived as strong, stable countries are anticipated to have lower default probabilities. This anticipation lowers the interest rates in a way that dominates the increase in interest rates that arise because of additional borrowing. Mark Aguiar, Gita Gopinath (2006). Exchange Rate The exchange rate is expected to have an impact on the current account. If there is a depreciation in the exchange rate, then that particular country will experience a fall in the foreign price of its exports. It will appear more competitive and therefore there will be a rise in the quantity of exports. Assuming demand for exports is relatively elastic then a depreciation will lead to an increase in the value of exports and therefore improve the current account deficit. Similarly a depreciation of the exchange rate, will also lead to an increase in the cost of buying imports. This will lead to a fall in demand for imports and also help to reduce the current account deficit. Therefore, in theory, a depreciation in the exchange rate should improve the current account and an appreciation should worsen the current account. Fiscal policy can affect the current account by altering the relative price of non-tradables, that is the real exchange rate, higher government spending on non-tradables (such as the services or real estate sectors) can induce a real appreciation, which in turn can drive private consumption toward, and production away from, tradables. Demographics As we mentioned above the current account is, by definition, identical to the imbalance between national saving and domestic investment. Therefore, a saving–investment imbalance in an individual country determines its current account balance. The literature on the determinants of national saving has pointed to a number of additional ‘structural’ determinants such as demographics. From the perspective of current account determination, however, demographic profiles should be important only insofar as they differ across countries and, thereby, influence cross-country differences in saving Chinn and Prasad (2003). There could also be differences in saving patterns of working-age cohorts depending on the fractions of the dependent population that are comprised of young and old dependents (very young but also old people are not expected to save). In our empirical work, we take into consideration the effects of young and old dependency ratios. According to Kim and Lee (2007) increased dependency ratios are expected to affect negatively both public saving and domestic investment. Financial development Low level of financial development might indicate an inefficient domestic financial system, which might encourage savers to invest abroad, and thereby a low level of financial development might coincide with a current account surplus. However, low level of financial development could also indicate the presence of credit constraints, which lowers private savings and thereby the current account surplus. We have also to take into consideration the fact that the global financial system is becoming more liberalized and integrated, that fact allows larger external imbalances to be financed than in the past because of the ability of the financial system to move capital among countries. Gruber, Kamin (2006) Stage of economic development Relative real GDP per capita represents an important factor in explaining current account developments, linking the intertemporal approach to the current account and the stages of development hypothesis. A small open economy that starts from relatively low domestic income is expected to have low saving, as the optimal consumption levels are high relative to current income. This implies increased external borrowing against future income, which coupled with substantial initial investment needs, would translate into larger current account deficits at an early stage of development. As the economy catches up and a higher level of development is achieved, external financing needs tend to moderate. Thus, we expect relative real GDP per capita to be positively related to private saving and the current account. ECB (2010)
Empirical evidence on the determinants of current account: the role of fiscal adjustment
(2018) Vasilatos, Andreas; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International and European Economic Studies; Konstantinou, Panagiotis
This dissertation provides empirical evidence regarding the effects of fiscal adjustment on the current account balance for 17 OECD countries. The implemented econometric models also control for several, widely used, short-term and medium-term determinants of the current account balance. Both historical approach, based on the examination of contemporaneous policy documents, and cycle adjusted primary balance (CAPB) are used in order to identify fiscal policies motivated by the governments’ intentions to reduce the fiscal deficit and not by other cyclical factors. My findings suggest that it is very important to separate between tax based and spending based policies of fiscal adjustment. In the case of tax based consolidations it seems that the twin deficits hypothesis holds as an improvement in fiscal balance leads to an improvement in the current account. However, spending based consolidations appear to have a negative impact on the current account balance on the medium term.
Financial firms in DSGE models
(2018) Angelopoulos, Nikolaos-Alexandros; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International and European Economic Studies; Economides, George; Konstantinou, Panagiotis
In this thesis, we first provided a compact review of the theory and of some modeling techniques of the banking frictions. The aim was to provide a sense of how DSGE’s in the last decade have been trying to capture banking imperfections and incorporate them in the general equilibrium. In the models we examined we saw that the modeling techniques revolved around the same core; there is a considerable continuity in the literature regarding the mechanisms the scholars have been using to model the frictions. In the last part of the thesis, we simulated variations of a notable financial frictions models with the aim of drawing conclusions about the interconnections between the nominal and the financial frictions. The results were clear. The economy, whether it is flexible or nominally rigid,reacts qualitatively and quantitatively in the same way when a crisis, propagated through the financial sector, hits
Foreign direct investment flows: The effects of the global financial crisis
(22-06-2016) Tzenerali, Marina; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International and European Economic Studies; Konstantinou, Panagiotis
Income inequality and economic growth: a reassessment of the relationship
(01/31/2019) Belousis, Dionysios; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International and European Economic Studies; Economides, George; Konstantinou, Panagiotis
Evidence from a broad panel of countries that covers the period 1975-2014 shows that the empirical relationship between income inequality and GDP per capita growth rate differs with the econometric technique and the level of development. Estimating a dynamic panel data model that controls for unobserved heterogeneity (fixed effects) suggests that inequality has a positive and insignificant impact on growth. However, neither the first difference nor the system GMM, which yield superior results in endogenous growth regressions, favor a positive association. Instead, the results indicate that greater levels of inequality are significantly associated with a lower rate of growth over five year periods. For this time frame there is also evidence suggesting that inequality has a strong positive and significant effect on growth in advanced countries, an effect which becomes negative and non-significant when it comes to low and lower middle income economies. The results are robust to the inclusion of additional control variables and across different inequality definitions. Regarding the whole sample, the magnitude of the impact that inequality has on growth depends on the presence of highly influential countries.
Liberalization and income inequality: an empirical analysis in a panel of 84 countries
(02/01/2019) Karagiannis, Iraklis; Καραγιάννης, Ηρακλής; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International and European Economic Studies; Economides, George; Konstantinou, Panagiotis
The causal effect of globalization on income inequality is an issue of significant academic interest. On the one hand globalization is considered to promote global economic growth and social progress, while on the other; it is blamed for growing income inequality and environmental degradation, causing social degeneration and difficulty of competition.