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The infection fatality rate and SARS-CoV-2 transmission
(2021-07-08) Zanni, Maria A.; Ζαννή, Μαρία Α.; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Statistics; Vasdekis, Vassilis; Kyriakidis, Epaminondas; Demiris, Nikolaos
Determining the age-dependent infection fatality rate (IFR) for SARS-CoV-2 the virus that causes COVID-19 is a topical issue. The infection fatality rate is defined as the number of deaths over the total number of infections. This is in contrast to the case fatality rate (CFR), the ratio of deaths over reported cases, so the denominator of the IFR included the unreported cases. Here we summarise the results of 12 studies that met specific criteria for the assessment of the IFR. A Bayesian meta-regression procedure using STAN and R was used to estimate IFR, a strongly age-dependent quantity. The COVID-19 IFR grows exponentially with age and our results for specific age grouping suggest that it is quite small 0.004% for the age group 0-17 and relatively small at 0.037% for the age group 18-39. A significant increase is observed in the ages between 40-64 where the IFR is 0.469% and it jumps to 4.326% for age group 65+. The total, age-dependent infection fatality rates are calculated for the 3 waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Greece using the age distribution of the observed cases reported in Greece from March, 2020 to April, 2021. Finally, using these estimates of the infection fatality rates, the transmission of infection and total disease burden for Greece was estimated through an appropriate epidemic model.