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  • Μικρογραφία εικόνας
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    The effects of economic policy uncertainty on tanker shipping freight rates
    (2020) Argyridis, Christodoulos; Αργυρίδης, Χριστόδουλος; Germanos, Konstantinos; Γερμανός, Κωνσταντίνος; Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Accounting and Finance; Kavussanos, Manolis; Moutos, Thomas; Drakos, Konstantinos
    In our research we examine the effects of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) on tanker freight rates (VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax and Panamax), a determinant that has not been yet utilized in the existing scientific literature for this certain purpose. Long Run Historical Earnings of the relevant segments are used as a proxy for freight rates. We create a predictive model that employs GEPU along with other established variables for the industry that we divide into two distinct categories, the Shipping Industry Related and the Economic Environment variables. To do so, we collect monthly data from January 1997 to June 2020 sourced from Clarksons Database and the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. We exclude variables through the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayes information criterion (BIC) to avoid multicollinearity, and to avert the impact of outliers on our estimation results we remove the extreme observations beyond the 1st and 99th percentiles. Further, to create our model, we apply panel data Clustered Regression Analysis on a cross sectional time series dataset. Our findings indicate that GEPU influence on LRHE is positive and statistically significant at 1% significance level, implying an unmistakable effect on tanker freight rates which suggests that uncertainty is an inflating factor for the industry. Despite LOWES graph pointing that there is an indication of non-linearity, GEPU’s relationship with LRHE is apositive linear one sine GEPU^2 insertion to our model proves to be statistically insignificant. Additionally, GEPU influence on tanker freight rates is persistent throughout the whole period of our investigation, and not only appearing after, before or during milestone events of economic uncertainty such as the 2008 financial crisis.